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Coming up to Calgary to trade with my partner for the week. There was a lot of volatility and some really nice trades available. Calgary is a boom town that is famous for the Stampede and has a sky line that is populated with skyscrapers from the previous 12 year oil boom. The almost 15 % change in the Canadian dollar is making it seem a little less expensive here. There are Audi’s everywhere and people spend money consuming expensive dinners and wearing Lulu lemon. The cost of living is pretty high (compared to southern California), but people make a pretty good living and it seems that the economy is doing well.. Seems
Rolling into 2015 I am watching as the Canadian Dollar is trading at 1.26 to the US dollar. I have been up to see Fort MacMurray and the 10,0000 people oil camps last year with my son. Last night I met with a group of investor/traders at the Calgary Day Trading Group. It seems the property bubble is still in tact, that jobs are OK, but some workers from the “Camps” are coming home as collapsing oil prices are causing lay offs at the sands. I am putting up two charts of the USDCAD and the Mexican Peso. There are some similarities which you will see almost instantly.
What I am seeing in Canada is the convergence of many factors which can fundamentally weigh on the currencies strength and ability to weather this Oil storm.
Technically we could see the Canadian dollar heading to 1.30 then 1.40 over this next 6 to nine months. Unfortunately, it all is reliant on Oil and consumption in Canada. If we look at the chart you can see how the CAD dollar acted at this present price level and that it consolidated at this range for 3-4 months. This would put us into the second quarter.
If we see oil recover to a price target of $55 to $60 there will be short term recovery for the Canadian Dollar. If there is further selling, down to the critical price supports the Saudi Oil ministers said they can support we will see unemployment raise, Oil revenues fall and probably a housing correction under way. Presently, there is a stall in the housing market as always occurs when you have a harsh winter. The interesting thing is, that it was 55 degrees outside this week and the sun was bright and shiny. These two rectangles are showing where price could extend or where it could re trace. Both of these levels are crucial to the Canadian Dollar but won’t pull it back to the 1.06 level to the dollar experienced in 2014. Oil would have to soar back to the $70 plus range for strength in the Canadian dollar.
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The S&P 500 has been trading in quite the volatile range lately. Moves have been large and quick, with little warning before 20 point swings. Last weeks move to touch to lower support in the 1980 area and then turning has set a picture for what could come next.
The S&P E-mini futures are trading into an important area of resistance in the 2050-2060 area, on the weekly and daily charts. Here is where we will see the continuation of the direction or the turn to test back to previous support. If price trades to break through the 2060 area then we will be looking to see it move back to test the 2090.00 area again, with a longer term target up at the 2140 level. Price has had a tendency of being very choppy around the top in previous new highs, so some turbulence will be expected in the 2090 area without a clean high volume run through.
If we see price get stuck in the 2060 area of resistance then could be looking for a test back to previous support before continuing the move. Support is in at 2010 and at the 1980-90 previous low. In the last two attempts at support, the ES S&P500 has failed again to break below the 200 Day MA and now looks to be breaking back above the 50 Day MA as well should we see the move above 2060.00.
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Gold trading 2015 where is price going?
2015 Gold trading has taken off with buyers moving into the market as a “disaster hedge” as more and more pressure is being put on the Euro. Gold bugs might finally be getting their day as trust in the Euro has fallen and Europe lies on the edge of economic disaster. Remember the risk off trade fluctuates between the Dollar, Yen and bonds. The volatility of Gold makes it a high risk “disaster hedge” when economies or countries are on the brink of devastating economic change.
The average daily range for gold is getting more and more volatile in 2015 as Central Bankers are manipulating interest rates and adding liquidity to markets through Quantitative Easing. This means the incestuous buying of their own bonds and purchasing of equities.
Gold buyers moved in and bought through a major resistance at 1252-1256. This is of major importance because the door is open to further buying to 1300 which is the first psychological resistance and could signal the end of the bear market. Watch for gold trading to consolidate at 1290 to 1320 area. as noted in the zone market on the chart.
Buyers moving in above this level could get through the next area of resistance at 1340. Gold trading above this area will start what could be the next Bull market in this commodity. The next area of resistance is the red zone from 1340 to 1356. Previously, sellers moved in and kept the direction of the bear market here. There was a lot of market makers in the futures side selling on this move, but physical demand was not being met.
As mentioned on the Money Maker Edge™ blog if you are using a “Plan B” buying physical gold on dips for gradual accumulation will give you an edge as a hedge against what could be coming with the confluence of international banking manipulations. Don’t put you self at risk by buying so much that you can’t afford to live. Remember this is a disaster hedge, not a risk off trade.
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The S&P500 is presently in a chop zone that is roughly 120 points in consolidation on the daily chart. The support came in at 1965 and has moved back and forth between there and the swing high. I have placed a fibonacci extension over the previous correction to the swing high to show possible price extensions. You might note the area from 2060 and the swing high to 2090 is where the market could consolidate and then spring board for the next targets around 2120, 2159 and 2220.
You can probably see again how corrections are taking 4 to 7 days to move down and then 2-3 days to move up when it breaks out of consolidation. Presently, if price falls from this level, we could see a bit longer move down as we are in a Head and Shoulders Bearish pattern. Note that Head and Shoulders Bear patterns have not taken a full extension down for the past few years and that I would expect to see them quickly reverse.
Central Banks are moving the markets and creating a very volatile intra-day trading situation. Futures trading is an overnight market so Central Banks policy, intervention through Quantitative Easing and use of interest manipulation will first show up in the futures market. Be aware that some of these swings have been 20 to 40 handles (points) in the after hours only to be followed by volatile gaps, and intraday reversals covering 20 to 40 points.
I have highlighted the open gaps on the chart above, you will see them as small rectangles showing where the previous days close and the next days open have not filled. Noting these as downside targets for sell offs. and of course the major psychological support of 1800. If we break under here watch for the bid to be pulled and maybe some free fall. Always remember that trading is risky, don’t trade unless you know what you are doing and have risk capital. Don’t trade with your rent money, that is gambling!
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I am writing my Annual report for our proprietary fund ignoring this intuitive feeling that we are on the door step of a financial contagion. January has started out fast and furious in the world with combinations of terrorism, and financial decay moving into what the main stream media paints as a healthy American Market. In the shadow of this booming market for “Market Makers” we have watched the wealthy become super wealthy and the middle class almost disappear. I live in California, a place of eternal sunshine, wearing shorts in December- January, where a sort of eternal optimism pervades and entrepreneurial capital flows. Everyone that lives around me is either a upper division public servant (police, homeland security, fire chief) or an Entrepreneur working their own business. The jobs for the public sector have been booming, the entrepreneurs have been letting people go and working themselves. Most of my acquaintances who were anti gun this past year have purchased their first guns. It is surprising in the sheer numbers of my semi conservative semi liberal middle of the road acquaintances have made this their middle of the road. This is the environment I am watching spread through wealthy neighborhoods close to me. You can’t even get range time reserved for shooting practice. Prices for practice have gone up and times are booked weeks in advance.
I can’t ignore my intuition when it is driven through facts, this is for my friends and my students.
I talk to people around me and notice they are so complacent about the war we have been in, and the perilous heights the markets have reached from bonds to the S&P500. The complacent think it is all taken care of, they have funded their pensions, everything is going to be alright. Smart people have a “
Santions + Worthless Ruble + Oil cratering + 80% of people are concerned over food = Putin taking the off the ball with either “War” or “Aggression”
This outlier can unfold in many ways. With Pain coming from decreasing consumption from Europe in the form of Food, manufacturing and machine tooling from Germany coupled with financing from England….this is all changed.
The next step is in progress – retaliation and here is the start. Russia shifts Exporting Natural Gas to Europe for Turkey. This is Huge. Also the Petro Ruble which will be used instead of the Petro Dollar trade.
Gold trading in the derivatives market is leveraged and highly volatile. Most traders can’t afford to hold large positions. Volume has been increasing on this move up and we are seeing “Scared Money” come in strong this past week. “Fear drives Gold prices” Joel Wissing
I have always been of the mind that if the economy collapses to the point where you are going to have to use gold or silver then you might invest in firearms too, because you will need them to keep your gold. That being said, getting an ounce of physical gold on the dips could be a good idea. Just be careful how you keep it. There are plenty of prep-per websites for ideas. Picking up an ounce or two could be part of your “plan B”
Most people are watching for Greece to go, but like Lehmans, there are plenty of banks that could collapse, over leveraged financial institutions that have margin calls or even clients shifting assets. UBS richest clients just did a shift to the dollar.
I am not saying the dollar is a safe bet, but for now in the quagmire of financial reality(sh*t), it is going to be the last man standing if we collapse tomorrow.
Pressure on the Euro is coming from everywhere and this insurgency of clashing cultures is not dissipating it is accelarating. Plan B – hold a credit card or bank account in another country in a different currency, and hold another passport. Not everything unless you are the richest man in China he moved it to multiple currencies in the Cayman Islands.
The US is at a crucial juncture with many outside pressures that could correct the markets. A correction is normally 10%, but the problem is that there is so much complacency in the market that if a “Market Maker Sell” hits and no on is on the other side to buy, then the market can go into free fall. There are protections, but they can be short lived as more people after seeing the government “halt trading” have a tendency to panic and sell when the market opens.
The three small blue lines are unfilled gaps where the market has a tendency to come back and fill. These are down side targets on the chart. We have entered a choppy zone where the traders are indecisive and there could be many bounces back and forth until direction is found and the “Market Makers” Choose a direction.
“Plan B” Be able to short the market, Falling markets are where fortunes are made. Educate yourself and become financially literate.
Will it happen today? Will the market crash tomorrow? Will it crash in our sleep? I don’t know when or how but I do know to keep my eyes open to direction, stop listening to the talking heads. Read, investigate and find the ways to create your “Plan B”
There is a lot going on in the world and the main stream media is keeping most people fed with a mixture of fear “Ebola” and fixation “princes, religion, the web” . I am very fortunate that I have people around me that have educated me in economics, business and the way of the “Market Makers”. You too can take responsibility for yourself by starting a “Plan B” and gradually implementing it, step by step, to secure yourself and family and focus on your passions. It is the only way out.
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Few weeks ago, I was thinking by touching the red down trend line at 89$, dollars will go down and gold up….I was wrong. Since it did not happen, I start to look for the next turning point, witch will be at the “orange line”. at 96-97$ on this chart.
The fat red line, represent very strong resistance, if silver go below this trend line, the next ressitance will be at about 9$ and then 5$/oz
I’m sure people think I’m crazy to see Silver that low…and saying this is impossible… but not long time ago, when silver was at 25-20$…many people was also seeing im crazy to see silver drop at 15$ price range.
By being in a pennant..we should see the next long term direction very soon.
For Gold Price target and direction, see past Blog post, by Joel Wissing.
Since I know some people who are looking to buy Natural Gaz right now because they think it’s over sold. I decide to get this chart , where they could see in a very long term the Natural gaz price movement.
If you analyse properly…you will understand, that see Natural Gaz at 3.3$ is not a big deal so far.. and the bottom price , it’s at about 2.2$, when it touche the Green Trend line ( bull Trend)
Oh Ya ! let’s go back on US Dollars , Oil, Gold and Silver….next movement…
You have to understand…the reason why US Dollars keep moving Up, it’s because oil price get cheaper and cheaper. And everyone know the reason it’s because of OPEC ( created by United State with the Petro-Dollars) who are doping Oil price on purpose, to please USA… And knowing Arabic Saudi are loosing a lot of money right now, true cheap oil… the day they will decide to bring the Oil price back to the tops, USA will start to loose the currency war… The key question it’s if it will happen soon enough, before we see gold and Silver, going so low, so it won’t go back any time soon to create new all time highs.
They important think to understand is :
Two know what to do… Watch OPEC release news
Crude oil is testing a strong Bullish Trend ( green line). And it’s why we can see Oil price stop at 50-55$. We could see it go back to 80-82$, and then retest the Bullish trend line. This will give a break for pretty much every country who export oil.
If ever they succeed to break 50-55$ range, this will be catastrophic for everyone, are a world recession may start. And the bottom price will be at 40$
If…again , we break the 40, next price range will be 40-20 and this is very bad, since it can stay in this range for very long time.
But since it’s the OPEC who control the Crude Oil price, and it’s more a political game between Russia, USA, and Arab Saudi ( witch are loosing a lot’s of money right now in this game)…I really don’t think anyone will consider to drop Oil under 40$..
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Gold trading in 2015.We have seen the same transition in the Gold market where the “gold bugs” have been beaten down. The risk off trade is to the dollar, not gold. Gold is too volatile to be held as a risk hedge. Gold is held as a “Disaster Hedge” when there is a threat of war or some devastating economic turmoil.
The gold markets volume has changed dramatically changed this past year and we might see less participation on the individual investor side. If we have falling demand for gold in the derivatives market, it means would could see some extra price volatility in the daily ranges.
Watch for lack of commitment on the buyers side in the volatility. This means we could see a consolidation zone being followed by sell offs to new levels. If we were to see a continuation in direction with the $360 annual range, we might see tests to $780 range. Remember there is no rational sell off or real price to be attained and the price could sell off to even the $600 range or more if there is some type of capitulation or default in the derivatives markets. If there is then the upside would be to previous swing highs $1360, 1580 then 1800. (not likely)
The dollar index has been our major focus in our proprietary fund this year. The dollar index has been the major influence on price action in the major pairs, index trading, Gold and Oil. There has been quite a bit of volatility with momentum to the upside working in favor of most trades, mixed with oil price adjustments that have hurt many USD trades as the economies of the oil producing countries have some what cratered.
The key to the next year will be in trading the Dollar index and the price levels of support and resistance. We are posting a long term chart with some upside targets. Remember markets don’t normally move straight up or down and we will of course see some pull backs as the “unknown’s come in to play”.
If we have a continuation of the present direction of the dollar index we are targeting 92.56 and 99.10 for major resistance. This could take many months and watch for some consolidation for an upside continuation to occur. The dollar index has plenty of buy side momentum and could continue for the next year at this rate. The five year decline from 2002 to 2007 and the ensuing 2 years of consolidation in a 4 point range from 2012 -2014 built enough pressure in the market to bring us up over 10 penny in 6 months. There seems to be no let up on the buyer side which could keep this direction.
The dollar index has broken above the 200MA on the monthly chart, also above the 28.2 retracement an has a clear path to new highs.
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Gold daily chart. There are two ways to look at this chart. The traders expecting gold to bottom and start it’s bull run and the Dollar index traders looking for new highs and corresponding Gold collapse.
2014 saw a yearly high of 1391.71 and low of 1131.85 giving the gold market a yearly $360 range.
With the Yearly range in mind, let’s take a look at a monthly chart and see what the price action for Gold has been.
Gold has broken under the major support at $1200 and has spent the last two months testing new lows on this bearish cycle.
You can see in the previous chart the 200 day Moving average for gold is coming in the $1254 area and this is the resistance which traders are looking for the turn around and break of this major down trend.
The short term support under 1200 comes in at 1050 and then a full extension would take gold to $840 with a capitulatory target in a major sell off to the previous swing lows at $675.
Remember there are no “rational levels” when trading the volatility of gold and high risk markets. The Dollar index, political pressure and banking manipulation will have a lot of effect as this 2015 keeps course. We have pressure in a declining world economy out of Europe, Russian and even China that could start a continuation of this “super cycle” in commodities.
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Dollar index has soared to a previous swing high, crushing the Ruble through Oil price deflation.
Dollar Index has completed a multi-year retracement to previous swing highs. This multi-year high has implications across the board for many oil economies from Syria, Iran, Russia and Iraq which are dependent on oil sales to hold their economy’s strength.
At these levels, the dollar index has pushed commodities into a deflationary cycle that could push some economies into a further recession.
Price Action on the Dollar index
The consolidation zone from 87.50 to 88.50 will show us where the market is headed. There is a bit of exhaustion in the Dollar index at these levels and there will probably be some stimulus to continue direction after the FOMC meeting Wednesday.
Downside targets for support are 85.50 to 86.25 where we had previous consolidation and resistance at 92.50 to 93.50.
Although there has been a lot of upside movement in the dollar this move has not shown any sort of capitulation. Price at these levels previously exhibited price failure and the inability to keep direction as sellers moved in.
The dollar price action is effecting many commodities and the economies of many countries whose source of income is Oil.
Look for continued volatility as there is political pressure on both Russia, Syria and Iran and this might add strength to the dollar if there is any saber rattling.
45% of Russia’s economy is supported by oil and this move in oil and the deterioration of the value of the ruble could lead to intervention in the market by Russia’s central bank. This added volatility will make for wild movement and extreme caution should be used in trading in this environment.
If you are not used to trading in a volatile market, it is best to sit on the side than to expose your self to this much risk. Market makers are also getting beaten up in this environment and you would be best to sit on the side lines than to participate. Trading is high risk.
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The S&P 500 ES Traded one of it’s largest range days in quite a while today, opening and trading a 27 point range to close the day a bit better than flat.
Price traded down through the overnight to open at 2038.00, then tested the 2033 area of support before turning and flying back to the close the day in the 2060 area. This 55 point range will be the area to watch for an indication for the next direction. May have their sights set on the 2100 and 2140 area’s as upside targets. While others are waiting for what they believe is the impending fall of a market propped up by years of fake buying via QE 1-3 and Operation twist.
With no clear sign of anything other than just sticking to the trend. THe S&P has been grinding away at the tops with quick sell offs followed by buyers jumping in to bring prices right back. Take today’s price action with over 20 points of price failure for instance. Should this market continue to creep higher we could very well see the 2100 area. However if this plays out as a double top pattern we could be setting up for a reversal, perhaps another 100 points or so as a first target, then depending on the conditions of the market perhaps even more.
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